GLOBAL WARMING: A SECRET WINDOW TO DISASTER

As the news throngs the cover page of magazines about Global Warming and the melting of ice; let me throw some light on the issue. Let me first talk about glaciers and small ice – caps. Mountain glaciers and small ice caps can be divided into an upper accumulation zone, where the annual accumulation of snowfall exceeds annual melting or ablation and a lower ablation zone, where the annual ablation exceeds annual accumulation. For a steady state glacier (i.e. a glacier with constant mass) the net accumulation in the accumulation zone exactly balances the net loss in the ablation zone, with an internal transfer of the surplus from the accumulation zone to the ablation zone through the flow of glacier. The boundary between the 2 Zones is referred to as the Equilibrium line Altitude (ELA).

Now here lies the important fact: an increase in temperature or decrease in the annual snowfall tends to raise the ELA, where increase in snowfall will tend to lower the ELA. If the ELA rises above the height of the glacier, then the glacier will eventually disappear. Glacier differs substantially in how sensitive they are to changes in the ELA, depending on the geometry of the ablation and the accumulation zones. Complete melting of all mountain glaciers and small ice is estimated to raise sea level by 50 (plus minus) 10 cm. (Warrick et al., 1996).

It was the Hon’ble Late Prime Minister of India; Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru who once said that; “Crisis and deadlocks when they occur have atleast this advantage; THEY FORCE US TO THINK.”

This new thinking leads to new ways, which leads to better understanding and thus ultimately leads to a better society. As sea water starts to get warm, its density deceases. We do know that mass divided by volume is equal to density. Thus a given mass of ocean water will occupy a greater volume as the ocean warms, thereby tending to increase the average sea level. A quite different temperature warming profiles can occur in association with the same global mean surface warming, depending on I) the change in the average temperature at which bottom water forms and ii) whether and to what extent the thermohaline overturning circulation changes in intensity.

The change in the average temperature of bottom water formation depends on the amount of warming of the surface waters in the polar regions where bottom water forms and any change in the average temperature of bottom water formation depends on the amount of warming of the surface waters in the polar regions where bottom water forms and any change in the proportions of North Atlantic and Antarctic sources for bottom waters. Since bottom waters in the North Atlantic forms at about 2 degree centigrade, while that in the Antarctic forms at about -2 degree centigrade, a sharp drop at the rate of bottom water formation in the North Atlantic in combination with modest surface warming in polar regions could result in little or no change in the average temperature of bottom water formation.

Let me take a different case: If the average temperature of bottom water formation increases by the same amount as the Global Mean mixed layer, then the steady state warming is the same at all depths( and equal to the surface warming). So, in general the warming generally occurs or for a given average warming, the rise in sea level depends on where the warming occurs. Though, we take Global warming as just a readable thought, but in reality this is not so.

Recently when a team of experts from the Indian Space Research Organization, Department of Space, Government of India, headed by Glaciologist went to study about the glaciers in the Himalayas, they were shocked at their own findings: THE GLACIERS HAVE RECEDED BY MORE THAN 30 METRES IN 2 YEARS. SINCE 1960 – THE EARLIEST AVAILABLE MEASUREMENT OF THE SIZE OF THE GLACIER- SAMUDRA TAPU HAS RECEDED BY ALMOST 800 METRES.

Now the general question lies, is how to stop it at the personal levels. Because, if we don’t stop it, the greenhouse gases will accumulate in large scales and thus most parts of the world are at danger of being washed away along with more Hurricanes, floods, cyclones. This is just another type of Disaster happening and will take a havoc scale, if steps are not taken right now. Though, the respective Governments and the United Nations Organization can have policies but my understanding stresses on the need for personal plans to stop the increase of the Green house gases. It’s just like a small cell in our body. All living cells in our body work together for our metabolism, like wise, if we all work towards this goal of eradicating Global warming, then only, it can be a success.

Some steps to be taken our personal levels are given below:

a) If you have an open space in your house, then please plant trees or saplings to increase the Green Belt. Green Belts are extremely necessary, as it helps to reduce pollution and thus leads to lesser emission of Green House gases into the atmosphere. Not only that the Green Trees also acts as Carbon sinks.

b) Create awareness about the importance of Forestry. Forests are great carbon sinks.

c) Please go for cars and automobiles run by non-renewable sources of energy, like Electricity or Compressed Natural Gas (CNG). If you had already bought a petrol or diesel car, then please follow the emission norms and please do have a check on your exhaust pipe of the vehicle. These small steps can subsequently reduce automobile pollution at the very personal levels.

d) Use biogas, if possible for you.

e) You can also save energy too, by lighting lamps, when it is needed. This will lead to lesser consumption of energy and thus will indirectly lead to lesser consumption of fuels to generate electricity.

This are the very small steps if taken proper care off, we will get one step closer to make a better, Safer, Stronger World for us ; as well as out future generations.

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