TODAY'S MULTIPOLAR ASIA AND THE USA

The present international politics is very much confounding.It is one of the main features to identify this phase from that of the Cold War.In fact,a broad change has taken place the entire World particularly in terms of alliance creation and re-creation.Many old foes have come closer;again many have drifted apart,thereby loosening traditional strength of mutual cooperation.Very candidly saying,it is now the age of multipolar balance of power replacing the forty-year-long stereotyped bipartisan socio-eco-political outlook of the World.However,it should never be forgotten that there was the non-aligned group of countries trying to their best with the help of Positive Neutralism to bridge up between the two extremes.These Non-Aligned Movement member-countries or the NAM members have always tried to appease the enmity between the two Cold Warrior camps.Yet the biased angle of either of the extremes has caused harm to the NAM attempts at the maintenance of peace and prosperity on the basis of the variable-sum game.As a result,the NAM members very often faced impediments to the smooth way to their development.India,as the leader of the NAM,had to face similar problems which,at that point of time,came as some insurmountable challenges.

Iran and Pakistan were such countries who troubled India indelibly.The Pakistan was a great enemy neighbour of India ever since their independence.During the Cold War,Pakistan created gory situations concerning the Kashmir issue.In 1965 and 1971 wars with India,Pakistan got military assistance from Iran.In fact, at that time Iran was a US ally.So,that the treaty to effectualize perpetual peace and friendship between Iran and India,signed barely two months from India's adoption of her new Constitution,would virtually go null and void was expected.Upto the late 1970s the rift between Iran and India remained very sharp.And there was the US who always poked these two countries,particularly Pakistan,to disturb India only from a self-invented perception that India was playing a dual role,apparently non-aligned but ultimately the supporter of Communism.

It was only after the dismemberment of the Soviet Communist bloc that Iran and India got the opportunity to revive their friendship bilaterally sworn to almost four decades ago.This historic re-creation of their relation was created during P.V.Narshima Rao as the PM of India.Later,India's PM Vajpayee led to another chapter in the history of rapprochement by concluding the 'Tehran Declaration'.Today in Iran Gandhiji,the Father of India,and M.A.K.Azad get special homages.At present,there is a lot of scope also in cultural, educational and technical exchanges between the two nations.However,what India can never forget about the help Iran did for India,was allowing India's assistance to the building of the Chachbahar port and opening the port to India's exports for Afghanistan. No doubt,this port was essential for India's maintaining proper ties with the Central Asia and Afghanistan without depending upon Pakistan.To such of Iran's positive catalytic role to accelerate the friendship between India and Afghanistan,India is undoubtedly grateful.

But,when an obliged country under certain circumstances has to vote against her friend,it is the former who finds it difficult as to which partner to follow.India's situation is similar.India's companionship has been sought by the Hyde Act in each action the US will find fit for Iran.Though it is not mandatory,it is tough for India to digest the diplomatic embarrassment.However,it should be remembered that India has twice formally opined against Iran in the IAEA.

The Iran-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline is now going to put a new dimensional effect to the relation among not only these three parties but also the US under Obama.The cause of mentioning the name of Obama particularly is that he is considered to take even some drastic steps to dematerialize the Iranian nuclear policy.On the other hand,he is determined to stop militancy in Pakistan.Also,he wants to mediate between India and Pakistan concerning the Kashmir issue.So,this simple gas pipeline project involves so many serious re-adjustments in foreign policies of these countries.What is the additional fuel to this problem is that earlier Iran had opined for the implementation of the people's right to self-determination in Kashmir,to utter disapproval of India's stance upon the valley issue.Further,India is doubtful as to what extent the present Iran under the staunchy Ahmedinejad will be acceptable to her.But,his visit to India shows the favourable significance to the LNG deal and gas pipeline project.In fact,one point should be made clear that this IPI Gas Pipeline project will no more be stranded due to the Indo-Pak conflict.Now,Iran and Pakistan are determined to start the project even without India.However,the present Pakistan President Zardari so far seems to be an India's ally;so,he is believed not to indulge in the idea of mutually taking such an unscrupulous decision of excluding India.In fact,the chance of negotiation should be kept open whether on the IPI Gas Pipeline or the much more important Kashmir problem or joining hands in fighting terrorism.

Here,another crucial partnership problem awaits.It is China who is searching for the chance to replace India and start the energy partnership with Pakistan and Iran.No doubt,it will kill two birds at only one shoot;it will not only sideline India,but also enable China to come close to the US.In fact,the recent conclusion of the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Cooperation has been a 'virtual' threat to China as the Superpower in Asia.And,obviously,this deal has provided India with a special dimension of leadership in SAARC.It might also hamper the Chinese strategic relation with some of the SAARC members particularly Pakistan and Sri Lanka.Since Afghanistan,too,is now associated with the SAARC,such gas pipeline partnership will also favour her relation with Afghanistan.Thus,China intends to flourish in the Central Asia and the Middle-East articulately though China alone should not be blamed;if there is any other nation to indulge in such of China's opportunism,that will be Pakistan.She has already made ready the plan of importing about 1.05 billion cubic feet of gas extra for China. Even Gilgit in the North Pakistan has been selected as the area through which the gas pipeline is to head towards China.But all the plans will take place only provided India fails to join the project.

Finally,it is again the game between Iran and the US.Iran wants to prove her indispensability in oil and natural gas procurement by the Asian powers.Thus,while Iran tries to establish an Asian energy group,the US tries to motivate the trends in her favour and,at the same time,China attempts to further her hegemony in the same region including the eclipsed Russia.So,perfectly it is going to be the ASIAN DECADE when Asia,having all of its powers seeking to instrumentalize their potentials,regulates the attitude of their Western counterparts.Yet,the US might again get the opportunity to strengthen her base in Asia as Russia's President Medvedev recently expressed his interests in building a good relation with the USA under Obama.So,Asia is becoming a land of political quagmire to ultimately prove that the 'variable-sum game' sometimes leads to the invisible 'zero-sum game'.

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